SCENARIO

EXPLORER

The four scenarios presented here are not predictions, and they are not preferences. Each describes a plausible future world for the textile industry in 2040, constructed from the trends and uncertainties identified through desk research and extensive engagement with change actors from across the value chain. Their purpose is to widen the field of possibilities that decision makers consider, to surface assumptions that ordinarily remain unexamined, and to create a shared space in which different actors can explore the implications of change together.

A textile artisan weaving blue and yellow cloth

FOUR

SCENARIOS

Four plausible futures for the textile industry in 2040, each arising from a different combination of the forces now reshaping the sector, and each presenting its own opportunities, tensions, and trade-offs.

POWER SHIFTGLOBAL STORMS LOCAL SHIELDSNEW AGE CORPORATE EMPIRETHE NEW NOO- SPHERE
Power Shift textile future collage

POWER

POWER

SHIFT

SHIFT

Power Shift textile future collage

POWER

SHIFT

Asia anchors global power, and its growing middle classes are defining their own fashion rather than following Western norms.

Asia anchors global power, and its growing middle classes are defining their own fashion rather than following Western norms.

In 2040, Asia sets the pace for the global economy and for fashion, and skilled artisans have gained a new standing in society. Yet as fast fashion persists and climate migration grows, the gains of the many sit uneasily alongside those who are left behind.

In 2040, Asia sets the pace for the global economy and for fashion, and skilled artisans have gained a new standing in society. Yet as fast fashion persists and climate migration grows, the gains of the many sit uneasily alongside those who are left behind.

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Rajan, 55

Rajan, 55

Brand General Manager, Blue Lagoon Textiles

Brand General Manager, Blue Lagoon Textiles

READ RAJAN’S STORY

The Loom Card

The Loom Card

A garment card that makes makers, wages and environmental impacts visible, and helps customers arrange repair and remaking.

A garment card that makes makers, wages and environmental impacts visible, and helps customers arrange repair and remaking.

EXPLORE THE LOOM CARD

Meet Rajan, who runs a garment factory in Binh Duong, and the Loom Card, which tells shoppers who made their clothes and what they were paid.

Meet Rajan, who runs a garment factory in Binh Duong, and the Loom Card, which tells shoppers who made their clothes and what they were paid.

Global Storms Local Shields textile future collage

GLOBAL STORMS

GLOBAL STORMS

LOCAL SHIELDS

LOCAL SHIELDS

Global Storms Local Shields textile future collage

GLOBAL STORMS

LOCAL SHIELDS



A fragmented world has turned inward, and communities have become more self-sufficient, reviving local cultures, skills and ways of making.

A fragmented world has turned inward, and communities have become more self-sufficient, reviving local cultures, skills and ways of making.

In 2040, global supply chains have localised and repair and remaking become central to life. Throwaway culture is almost criminalised, and governments reward citizens for every garment they repair. Local equality grows, but rising seas and a wealthy elite keep new divisions alive.

In 2040, global supply chains have localised and repair and remaking become central to life. Throwaway culture is almost criminalised, and governments reward citizens for every garment they repair. Local equality grows, but rising seas and a wealthy elite keep new divisions alive.

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Akosua, 24

Akosua, 24

Tailor, Jamestown Abom, Accra, Ghana

Tailor, Jamestown Abom, Accra, Ghana

READ AKOSUA’S STORY

The Aboms

The Aboms

Neighbourhood hubs for tailoring, repair, redesign and reuse, shaped by the skills and materials of each place.

Neighbourhood hubs for tailoring, repair, redesign and reuse, shaped by the skills and materials of each place.

EXPLORE THE ABOM

Meet Akosua, who repairs and remakes clothes in Accra, and the Abom, the community hub where she and her neighbours make, mend and grow.

Meet Akosua, who repairs and remakes clothes in Accra, and the Abom, the community hub where she and her neighbours make, mend and grow.

New Age Corporate Empire textile future collage

NEW AGE

NEW AGE

CORPORATE EMPIRE

CORPORATE EMPIRE

New Age Corporate Empire textile future collage

NEW AGE

CORPORATE EMPIRE


Mega corporations govern much of the world, and in textiles the manufacturers who control materials, technology and labour have the upper hand.

Mega corporations govern much of the world, and in textiles the manufacturers who control materials, technology and labour have the upper hand.

In 2040, a handful of corporations govern through immense wealth and consolidated supply chains. Corporate townships and subscription citizenship shape daily life. Automated factories and digital fashion advance, but responsible businesses and the rest diverge as wealth disparity deepens.

In 2040, a handful of corporations govern through immense wealth and consolidated supply chains. Corporate townships and subscription citizenship shape daily life. Automated factories and digital fashion advance, but responsible businesses and the rest diverge as wealth disparity deepens.

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Kavitha, 41

Kavitha, 41

Quality checker, Arkon Textiles Campus, Tiruppur, India

Quality checker, Arkon Textiles Campus, Tiruppur, India

READ KAVITHA’S STORY

The Only Kurta You Need

The Only Kurta You Need

A white everyday garment that cools, warms and sheds rain, and doubles as a canvas for subscription fashion seen through AI glasses.

A white everyday garment that cools, warms and sheds rain, and doubles as a canvas for subscription fashion seen through AI glasses.

EXPLORE ADRISHYA KURTA

Meet Kavitha, who checks fabric on a corporate campus in Tiruppur, and the Adrishya Kurta, a garment that many people in this world wear every day.

Meet Kavitha, who checks fabric on a corporate campus in Tiruppur, and the Adrishya Kurta, a garment that many people in this world wear every day.

The New Noosphere textile future collage

THE NEW

THE NEW

NOOSPHERE

NOOSPHERE

The New Noosphere textile future collage

THE NEW

NOOSPHERE

States place their bets on AI to meet human needs and restore nature, while people exchange certain freedoms for ecological recovery.

States place their bets on AI to meet human needs and restore nature, while people exchange certain freedoms for ecological recovery.

In 2040, company-owned but state-programmed AI manages the trade-offs politicians could not. Factories have gone dark, virgin fibre is tightly rationed, and millions garden and rewild with a Universal Basic Income. Nature restores, while virtual abundance offers an escape from monitored consumption.

In 2040, company-owned but state-programmed AI manages the trade-offs politicians could not. Factories have gone dark, virgin fibre is tightly rationed, and millions garden and rewild with a Universal Basic Income. Nature restores, while virtual abundance offers an escape from monitored consumption.

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Leonel, 35

Leonel, 35

Gardener, Parque La Hondonada, Santiago, Chile

Gardener, Parque La Hondonada, Santiago, Chile

READ LEONEL’S STORY

The Enterremos Nuestra Ropa

The Enterremos Nuestra Ropa

A festival where people bury the clothes they have worn, so the seeds woven into the fibres can grow into trees.

A festival where people bury the clothes they have worn, so the seeds woven into the fibres can grow into trees.

EXPLORE ENTERREMOS

Meet Leonel, who tends native plants in a city park in Santiago, and Enterremos Nuestra Ropa, the festival where people bury the clothes they have worn.

Meet Leonel, who tends native plants in a city park in Santiago, and Enterremos Nuestra Ropa, the festival where people bury the clothes they have worn.

COMPARE THE

COMPARE

FOUR FUTURES

THE FOUR
FUTURES

See where each future sits on the key variables, then step through the questions that shape each world. Select any marker to read the report’s own words.

See where each future sits on the key variables, then step through the questions that shape each world. Tap any marker to read the report’s own words.

See where each future sits on the key variables, then step through the questions that shape each world. Select any marker to read the report’s own words.

Power Shift
Global Storms Local Shields
New Age Corporate Empire
The New Noosphere

Decarbonisation

LOWHIGH
Medium to high, financed by the state
Low, driven by scarcity
Low and incidental, driven by profit and efficiency
High, set by an algorithmic mandate

Climate adaptation

LOWHIGH
Medium to high, led by states on a regional level
High, delivered at a regional level
Uneven and focused on the individual
High, system-wide and automated

Social justice

LOWHIGH
Decent wages and strong unions
High, with a strong local voice
No uniform just transition, as it depends on the employer
High material security through Universal Basic Income but little voice

KEY VARIABLES

HOW EACH

WORLD WORKS

WORLD
WORKS

Who Holds Power?

Asian states

Power ShiftPower Shift

Regional blocs

Global Storms Local ShieldsGlobal Storms

Corporations

New Age Corporate EmpireCorporate Empire

States and AI

The New NoosphereNew Noosphere

TAKE THE SCENARIOS

INTO YOUR ORGANISATION

Download the full report to read each scenario in depth, including how we got there, what the textile industry looks like and the signals of change we can already see today. The toolkit helps your team work with the scenarios to test strategies, explore risks and opportunities, and identify the actions you can take now.

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